Iran's Nuclear Ambitions

from the January 17, 2006 eNews issue

The Iranian government has taken a big step forward it its pursuit of nuclear technology. It has removed the International Atomic Energy Agency seals from three of its nuclear plants. Iran's defiance has forced the international community into a no-win situation. If decisive action is taken Iran will continue to develop its nuclear program; military action could lead to war; and sanctions might prompt Iran to use oil as a weapon.

Iran's actions have left politicians scratching their heads. It has also caused crude oil prices to rise to a three-month high. Experts fear that if we hit Iran with sanctions they may respond by cutting off oil exports. Oil is the most effective weapon the Iranians have, and they won't hesitate to use it. Iran produced 3.9 million barrels of crude oil a day last month, almost 5 percent of world output. The 1979 Iran revolution caused oil production to drop dramatically and oil prices more than doubled as a result. It could happen again if the international community takes action and Iran decides to retaliate.

The controversy over Iran's nuclear program has steadily escalated in recent weeks. The EU is attempting to reopen dialogue, but there is little hope of reaching an agreement. Meanwhile, exiles from the Islamic nation tell of secret tunnels being used to conceal Iran's clandestine activities. Some have suggested UN Security Council action, but both Russia and China have said they appose the use of sanctions. With UN sanctions unlikely, very few options remain. As the situation worsens, news reports have emerged indicating that Israel may be preparing a military strike against Iran's nuclear facilities.

Iran's pursuit of nuclear weapons predates the Islamic revolution of 1979. However, Iran under the ayatollahs recommitted itself to researching the technology, and in 2004 President Khatami insisted Tehran would pursue a peaceful nuclear technology program despite a threat of U.N. sanctions. Though Iran denies it is trying to build a bomb, U.S. intelligence believes the civilian program is a ruse to hide research into building weapons. Iran's main source of technology and nuclear material is thought to be China, with Russia supplying civilian nuclear power technology. China has also sold missile technology to Iran.

Iran has openly admitted that it plans to convert 40 tons of raw uranium into fuel for nuclear centrifuges. That amount of enriched uranium would be enough material to create five nuclear weapons. The United States intelligence community has obtained Iranian plans which are part of a project to develop a nuclear warhead. The plans reportedly include over 1,000 pages of drawings and documents. Iran has also recently acquired 12 nuclear-capable cruise missiles. The cruise missiles have a range of 3,000 kilometers, well within reach of Israel.

The State Department calls the Islamic Republic of Iran the world’s "most active state sponsor of terrorism." Iran continues to provide funding, weapons, training, and sanctuary to numerous terrorist groups based in the Middle East and elsewhere. Iran mostly backs Islamist groups, including the Lebanese Shiite militants of Hezbollah (which Iran helped found in the 1980s) and such Palestinian terrorist groups as Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad. Iran is governed by Shiite Muslim clerics committed to a stern interpretation of Islamic law. Hatred of the United States has been a key component of Iranian foreign policy since the 1978 Islamic revolution, and Iran’s leaders often refer to the United States as the "Great Satan." Iran’s distaste for the United States is surpassed only by their utter loathing of Israel. Iran's political and religious leaders have repeatedly called for Israel to be "wiped off the map." They have also denounced any attempts to recognize Israel or normalize relations with it. A nuclear-armed Iran would be a serious threat to Israel's security, however it remains to be seen if Israel with attempt a pre-emptive strike. If Israel does attack Iran it would undoubtedly bring about a firestorm in the Middle East.