Taiwan Provokes China with UN Bid

from the August 07, 2007 eNews issue

The United Nations has once again rejected Taiwan's application for membership – this news is not unexpected, but there is more to the story. Unlike its previous attempts to join the UN, Taiwan did not submit its most recent application using its official title "Republic of China." This time, for the first time, the request was presented under the name "Taiwan." Taiwan's shift in tactics has provoked a strong response from the Chinese government. China's ambassador to the UN condemned the decision, calling it a "blatant move toward Taiwan independence." Other Chinese officials described Taiwan's president as "scum" and a "plotter and saboteur."

In recent years Taiwan has lobbied strongly for admission into various international organizations. In fact, Taiwan has now tried and failed 15 times to join the United Nations. China opposes Taiwan's membership in such organizations, most of which require statehood for membership, because it considers Taiwan to be a province of China, not a separate sovereign state.

Maintaining the Status Quo

The island of Taiwan was ruled as a prefecture by the Manchu Qing Dynasty for more than two hundred years before becoming a Chinese province in 1887. In 1895, military defeat forced China to cede Taiwan to Japan. Taiwan reverted to Chinese control after World War II. Following the Communist victory on the mainland in 1949, two million nationalists fled to Taiwan and established a constitutional government. Over the next five decades, the ruling authorities gradually democratized and incorporated the native population within the governing structure. In 2000, Taiwan underwent its first peaceful transfer of power from the Nationalist to the Democratic Progressive Party. Despite the treat of an armed conflict Taiwan has continued to move towards independence.

Today the political status of Taiwan is somewhat ambiguous. For the most part Taiwan governs itself. It has its own currency and has formal diplomatic ties with 25 nations. While most nations recognize Taiwan as part of China, many countries (such as the US) have set up unofficial organizations to handle relations with Taiwan. There are some Taiwanese who support reunification with China, others support independence, but the overwhelming majority of the Taiwanese favor maintaining the status quo largely to avoid an armed conflict.

The 1979 Taiwan Relations Act provided the legal basis for the unofficial relationship between the US and Taiwan, and it enshrines the US commitment to assisting Taiwan's defensive capability. The United States is Taiwan's biggest ally and arms supplier, and although the US officially recognizes Taiwan as being part of China it opposes any change to the status quo.

A Dangerous Senario

The Chinese have made it clear they will use military force should Taiwan formally declare its independence. A war with China over Taiwan would, of course, be far more dangerous than any of the United States' post-Cold War operations. China has substantial conventional ground, naval, and air forces, as well as a nuclear weapons arsenal capable of reaching any target in the United States. The threat of nuclear retaliation will make it much more difficult for the US military to take part in a defense of Taiwan.

Today China has one of the most advanced militaries in the world. China already has over 1,000 short range ballistic missiles deployed opposite Taiwan. The Chinese military is also developing new JL-2 submarine-launched nuclear missiles. The JL-2 will most likely have multiple warheads, and is expected to have a longer range than the DF-31. The JL-2s will have an estimated range of about 7,500 miles, enough to strike targets throughout the United States.

China's military buildup seems specifically designed to fit a Taiwan conflict scenario and to target US air and naval forces that could become involved. Arthur Lauder, professor of international relations at the University of Pennsylvania, said the Chinese military "is the only one being developed anywhere in the world today that is specifically configured to fight the United States of America...no objective reason exists why China, if she stays on her present course, should not eventually pose an even greater threat to the United States and its friends and allies than did the Soviet Union."