Economic Upheaval: The Decline of the Dollar

from the September 04, 2007 eNews issue

Money is one of the most important inventions of humankind. Without it, a complex, modern economy based on division of labor, and the consequent widespread exchange of goods and services, would be impossible. Unfortunately, many experts believe we are on the verge of a financial crisis. In recent years the value of the US dollar has dropped significantly, inflation has increased, consumer debt has reached an all-time high, and the US housing market has become dangerously unstable. We will examine each of these issues in greater detail in the coming weeks, beginning with a look at inflation and the decline of the dollar.

Our current economic predicament is consistent with the Bible's description of the end times. The black horseman of Revelation 6 calls our attention to, not just famine at the onset of the Tribulation, but also to an economic condition where a man's daily wages are so small, he can barely support himself much less his family. What kind of condition would produce that? The answer is one which has emerged today and which, for the first time in the history of mankind, is for all intents and purposes universal: monetary inflation.

At present, approximately two thirds of world trade is conducted in dollars and two thirds of central banks' currency reserves are held in the American currency which remains the sole currency used by international institutions such as the International Monetary Fund. This confers on the US a major economic advantage: the ability to run a trade deficit year after year. US always spends more than it earns, whereas the rest of the world always earns more than it spends.

The strength of the dollar is closely related to the fact that oil, the most important commodity traded in the world, is priced in US currency. The majority of countries that are oil importers have to buy their oil in dollars, which forces them to keep most of their foreign currency in dollars. However that could change. More and more nations are moving away from the dollar. China, Sweden, Italy, Switzerland, Iran, Russia, the United Arab Emirates and others have already announced plans to gradually move their reserves from the dollar into other currencies such as the euro. A widespread move away from the dollar could cripple the US economy - a sudden shift could even cause the US dollar to crash.

David M. Walker, Comptroller General of the United States, has warned that the nation is on the path to financial ruin: "What they don't talk about is a dirty little secret everyone in Washington knows, or at least should. The vast majority of the economists and budget analysts agree: The ship of state is on a disastrous course, and will founder on the reefs of economic disaster if nothing is done to correct it."

If the US government conducts business as usual over the next few decades, a national debt that is already $8.5 trillion could reach $46 trillion or more, adjusted for inflation. A hole that big could paralyze the US economy; according to some projections, just the interest payments on a debt that big would be as much as all the taxes the government collects today. And every year that nothing is done about it, the problem grows by $2 trillion to $3 trillion (yes, that's with a "t"). It doesn't take a genius to recognize that an economic upheaval is in the making.

If the United States is indeed facing a financial crisis, what should we do about it? How can we prepare for times of economic uncertainty? Chuck tackles these tough questions in his new briefing titled The Vortex Strategy.

This is the first installment in a three part series on the state of the economy in America. Next week we will continue our assessment with a look at the challenges facing the US housing market.