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Consider This a Warning

from the October 30, 2007 eNews issue
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A US-sponsored Middle East peace conference is expected to take place in Annapolis, MD in late November or early December (an exact date has not been set). In the mean time, Israeli and Palestinian leaders have been meeting to discuss a peace deal that would include the establishment of a Palestinian state. The talks are meant to lay the groundwork for negotiations at the upcoming Annapolis conference. However the two sides have yet to reach any kind of agreement and there is still much to be done before next month's summit.

As the appointed time for the Annapolis peace conference draws closer there is a growing sense that very little, if anything, will be accomplished. Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has even hinted that the meeting may not take place. This news should be cause for concern, but it has garnered little public interest. It seems very few have taken the time to consider the consequences. If the peace summit fails – which seems likely – what will happen next?

The probable consequences include the collapse of the Abbas government, the beginning of a new Intifada, and the further isolation of Israel – just to name a few. Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas has already lost control of Gaza, and the collapse of his government would present Hamas with an opportunity to seize even more control over the Palestinian territories. Reports have emerged that Abbas has even threatened to resign if the talks fail. (You might recall that Abbas resigned his post as Prime Minister back in 2003 due to similar frustrations.) If Abbas cedes power, Israel will have no one left to negotiate with, and will be forced to contend with a Hamas terrorist state.

Meanwhile Fatah, the political party and militant group founded by Yasser Arafat, has warned that failure to reach an agreement would ignite a third Intifada. Fatah's parliamentary leader warned that "the repercussions will be more dangerous then what happened after the failure of Camp David."

Money Talks

In order to bolster Mahmoud Abbas and the Palestinian Authority, the Bush Administration has asked Congress this week for an unprecedented 400 million dollars in aid. The United States cut off aid to the Palestinians when Hamas took control in the 2006 parliamentary elections. However when the Hamas-Fatah unity government fell apart, and Hamas seized control of the Gaza Strip, the US took steps to strengthen the Palestinian Authority (which is still in control of the West Bank). The 400 million dollars is meant to be a show of support for Mahmoud Abbas – whom the US and Israel view as a "moderate."

Since 1993 the US has given approximately 1.7 billion dollars in aid to the Palestinian Authority (although the EU remains its biggest single contributor). Foreign aid accounts for about half of the Palestinian Authority's annual budget. Without the funds it receives from Western nations, the Palestinian Authority could not afford to pay its 140,000 civil servants and police officers.

We will continue to monitor this situation on our website in the coming weeks. To learn more about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict explore the links below.