Nuclear Iran in 2009

from the November 06, 2007 eNews issue

This week Israeli Brigadier-General Yossi Baidatz, head of Israel's military intelligence research bureau, testified before members of the Knesset that if Iran's nuclear program went unchecked, the Islamic Republic could have nuclear weapons by the end of 2009. Israeli authorities warn that "Iran's nuclear program is proceeding like an express train" and that "we are on the verge of a nuclear era that will totally alter the regional reality."

Secrets and Lies

Iran claims that under Article 4 of the Non-Proliferation Treaty they have the right to develop nuclear technology. Iran insists that it is pursuing nuclear technology for peaceful energy purposes, but that leads to the obvious question: why would a nation with immense oil and gas reserves need nuclear energy? Iran claims it is building costly nuclear fuel cycle facilities to meet future electricity needs, while preserving oil and gas for export, but Iran’s uranium reserves are miniscule, accounting for less than one percent of its vast oil reserves. Iran controls 11 percent of the world’s oil reserves and its natural gas reserves are the second largest in the world. Iran does not have enough indigenous uranium resources to fuel even one power-generating reactor over its lifetime, but it does have enough uranium to make several nuclear bombs.

Iran has said that its goal is not to make nuclear weapons, but to develop nuclear energy. Which leads us to another important question: if Iran does develop a peaceful nuclear energy program, how difficult would it be to use that technology to make nuclear weapons? Nuclear power plants need 3 to 4 percent enriched uranium for fuel, but natural uranium only contains 0.7 percent. Thus uranium must be processed in a uranium enrichment facility before it can be used as fuel for nuclear power. What most people don't realize is the exact same technology and equipment used to enrich uranium for fuel can be used to enrich uranium for nuclear weapons, it simply requires more passes through the enrichment plant. A nuclear bomb requires about 90 percent enriched uranium, which is high compared to the percentage found in fuel, but according to experts it requires more energy to convert natural uranium to fuel than it takes to convert fuel into weapons-grade uranium.

According to a report by the US State Department on Iran's nuclear program: "The costly infrastructure needed to perform all of these activities goes well beyond any conceivable peaceful nuclear program. No comparable oil-rich nation has ever engaged, or would be engaged, in this set of activities - or would pursue them for nearly two decades behind a continuing cloud of secrecy and lies to IAEA inspectors and the international community - unless it was dead set on building nuclear weapons."

Iran's covert nuclear activities are part of the Islamic nation's overall objective. Iran's ultimate goal is to reposition itself as a regional heavyweight. Iran seeks to be a counterbalance to US forces in Iraq and Afghanistan, a vehicle of Islamic justice, and beacon for the rest of the Muslim world to follow.

The Coming Conflict

Iran is governed by Shiite Muslim clerics committed to a stern interpretation of Islamic law. Hatred of the United States has been a key component of Iranian foreign policy since the 1978 Islamic revolution, and Iran's leaders often refer to the United States as the "Great Satan." Iran's distaste for the United States is surpassed only by their utter loathing of Israel. Iran's political and religious leaders have repeatedly called for Israel's complete destruction.

The State Department calls the Islamic Republic of Iran the world's "most active state sponsor of terrorism." Iran continues to provide funding, weapons, training, and sanctuary to numerous terrorist groups based in the Middle East and elsewhere. Iran mostly backs Islamist groups, including the Lebanese Shiite militants of Hezbollah (which Iran helped found in the 1980s) and such Palestinian terrorist groups as Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad. Iran uses such groups to carry out a proxy war on Israel and the West. It is therefore folly to allow Iran, and consequently its terrorist allies, to obtain nuclear technology.

Iran is heading steadily toward a confrontation with Israel. There has long been speculation that Israel is preparing for a possible attack on Iran's nuclear facilities - there has even been evidence to suggest that Israel may be planning a tactical nuclear strike. To learn more about this topic, we encourage you to watch The Coming Conflict: Israel and Iran in which Avi Lipkin shares his unique insights on Middle East affairs.