The Problem of Loose Nukes

from the June 24, 2008 eNews issue

According to the Financial Times, prior to a recent investigation, the US Air Force did not know the whereabouts of more than 1,000 nuclear missile parts and other nuclear components. Earlier this year, the Air Force admitted that it had mistakenly shipped parts for nuclear missiles to Taiwan. The incident prompted an investigation into the management of the country's nuclear weapons program. The investigation discovered "the gradual erosion of nuclear standards and a lack of effective oversight by air force leadership." The inquiry has resulted in the forced resignations of the Air Force Secretary and Chief of Staff.

Air Force inspectors are also concerned about the safety of US nuclear weapons in Europe. The US keeps approximately 350 nuclear weapons at various bases in six NATO countries. Air Force officials are concerned that such bases in Belgium, Germany, Italy and the Netherlands are failing to meet security requirements. It would seem sites are falling short of Department of Defense requirements. The weapons are guarded by highly trained US military personnel. However the equipment, facilities, fencing, lighting, and security systems at the bases are in need of repairs and upgrading.

The problem of loose nukes grabbed headlines last week following new revelations about a nuclear smuggling ring linked to A.Q. Khan - the father of Pakistan's nuclear program. Khan has long been suspected of peddling nuclear technology on the black market. However a report released this week by the Institute for Science and International Security revealed that, in 2004, Swiss authorities found encrypted designs on computers seized from three smugglers associated with Khan. The designs were blueprints for an advanced, compact nuclear device. Authorities say they have no way of knowing if the information was sold or transferred to nations such as Iran, North Korea and Libya.

The term "loose nukes" refers to nuclear weapons, materials, or know-how that could fall into the wrong hands. Last year the International Atomic Energy Agency, the UN's nuclear watchdog, found more than 250 cases where radioactive materials were stolen, missing, or smuggled. The IAEA has repeatedly warned that highly enriched uranium can be found at more than 100 civilian research facilities in dozens of countries, often with inadequate security.

It is no secret that Al-Qaeda is actively seeking nuclear capabilities. In 1998, Osama bin Laden publicly stated that it was the duty of Muslims to possess a nuclear bomb. Obtaining a nuclear weapon is no small ambition, which is why many experts say that the more likely scenario involves a dirty bomb. They fear Al-Qaeda could create an improvised device using stolen or black-market nuclear materials.

In particular, unsecured or missing nuclear materials in the former Soviet Union remain one of the greatest threats to our security. Before its collapse in 1991, the Soviet Union had more than 27,000 nuclear weapons and enough weapons-grade plutonium and uranium to triple that number. Since then, severe economic distress, rampant crime, and widespread corruption in Russia and other former Soviet countries has fueled concerns about loose nukes.

According to former CIA director, George Tenet, Russia cannot account for all of its nuclear material before 2000 (the year Vladamir Putin took office). Many of Russia's nuclear sites are not adequately protected. In fact, less than one-quarter of Russia's nuclear weapons plants are secure. It is estimated that Russia has enough nuclear material that is vulnerable to theft to build 40,000 bombs. It is stored at hundreds of buildings in 40 sites around Russia. Furthermore, the former Soviet republics of Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan - where the Soviets based many of their nuclear warheads - safely returned their Soviet nuclear weapons to post-communist Russia in the 1990s, but all three countries still have large stockpiles of weapons-grade uranium and plutonium.

There is also concern among the intelligence officials that nuclear weapons from North Korea or Pakistan could fall into the wrong hands. Pakistan has between 65 and 90 nuclear weapons in its arsenal. In recent months political unrest in the Islamic nation seems to have spiraled out of control. Pakistan has been described as "the most dangerous country on earth" and the outcome of Pakistan's internal conflict could have global repercussions.

Pakistan is considered to be a "frontline ally" in the war against terrorism. Yet despite the government's official cooperation with the United States, the anti-American sentiment in Pakistan runs deep. Pakistan is home to many Islamist extremists, some with links to al-Qaeda and other terrorist groups. Many Taliban and al-Qaeda fighters fleeing from Afghanistan have taken refuge throughout Pakistan - particularly in lawless tribal regions on the Afghan border which are sympathetic to the fundamentalist cause.

Meanwhile, North Korea has demonstrated that it is all-too-willing to sell its weapons technology and nuclear know-how to anyone willing to pay. Experts suspect that North Korea currently possesses at least eight nuclear weapons as well as an extensive uranium enrichment program. North Korea's economy is weak and the government is strapped for cash. There is ongoing concern that North Korea could attempt to sell or trade nuclear weapons, supplies, and technology in order to meet its needs. North Korea is under increasing pressure to shut down its nuclear program, and it has show some signs of compliance, but there is still concern that its nuclear materials could end up in the hands of the highest bidder.

Loose nukes in the hands of terrorists isn't just a Hollywood fantasy, it is a very real threat to our security. Watchdog groups have repeatedly warned that not enough is being done to secure sensitive nuclear materials and that such materials could fall into terrorist hands. To learn more, click on the links below.