Monitor The Strategic Trends
China has climbed from an isolated backward country into one with a growing influence capable of becoming a superpower rivaling the United States.
In recent years, China has bought, borrowed, or stolen technology, which has catapulted its military capabilities into the modern high-tech arena. No one can match China for sheer numbers of people, and now it can challenge most of the world in technological achievements. The Clinton administration blindly sold sensitive technology to China and reportedly received campaign financing in return.
The human rights abuses have received less attention lately as various foreign leaders flock to pay state visits to the country and give little or no condemnation of China's human rights record. It seems that it is more important to placate than to demand reform. In the meanwhile, forced abortions and sterilization continue to be state policy, and political and religious persecution continues unchecked.
The "red dragon" no longer sleeps. It is already anticipating a war with the United States in the next decade or so and may one day prove to be a mighty adversary for anyone who gets in the way.
Just as China has emerged as a mass manufacturer, India is emerging as a giant in services. Technical and managerial strengths in both China and India are becoming more important that cheap assembly labor. And, their relative strengths are complementary, not competitive. For example, China has excelled in mass manufacturing, with multi-billion-dollar electronics and heavy industrial plants; India has specialized in software, design, services, and precision industry. Their efficiency in back-office processing alone is legendary and outsourcing such work is expected to quadruple by 2010 to over $56 billion per year!
These two emerging giants will transform the entire global economy. China and India account for one-third of the worlds population. For the past two decades, China has been growing at 9.5% per year, and India at 6% per year.Both are projected to continue at an annual rate of 7-8% for at least the next ten years. By mid-century, China should overtake the U.S. as #1. Together, China and India could account for almost half of the total global output.
Indias younger workforce will give it a chance to catch up to China. Due to its one-child policy, Chinas working age population will peak at 1 billion in 2015 and then shrink steadily. India has nearly 500 million people (twice the population of the U.S.) under the age of 19 and higher fertility rates. By mid-century, India is expected to have 1.6 billion people, 220 million more workers than China.
[RETURN TO THE MOST RECENT LINKS]
China Building Infrastructure In U.S. September 18, 2012
Far-East Update The Kings of the East by Dr. Steve Elwart
The Kings of South Asia by Steve Elwart
Strategic Update: 2010 and Beyond - China by Mary Miller, Director of Research
China Update, Part 3: Communism in China by Mary Miller, Koinonia Institute
China Update, Part 2: Economics in China by Mary Miller, Koinonia Institute
China Update, Part 1: Religion in China by Chuck Missler
Kings of the East, Part 2 The Rise of India by Chuck Missler
The Centroid Continues Westward: The Kings of the East by Chuck Missler
The Rise of Asia: An Overlooked "King of the East"? by Chuck Missler
Energy Wars: The Coming Crunch by Chuck Missler
What's Really Going On? U.S. - China Relations by Carol Loeffler
From Our Private Modem: Feeding the Dragon? by Chuck Missler
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China Snooping Around Pentagon Computers - China is using espionage to acquire technology to fuel its military modernization, the Pentagon said on Monday, for the first time accusing the Chinese of trying to break into U.S. defense computer networks and prompting a firm denial from Beijing. In its 83-page annual report to Congress on Chinese military developments, the Pentagon also cited progress in Beijing’s effort to develop advanced-technology stealth aircraft and build an aircraft carrier fleet to project power further offshore.
N. Korea Defiantly Conducts Nuke Tests - North Korea said Tuesday that it had conducted a new, more powerful underground nuclear test.
Jerry Dykstra, a spokesman for Open Doors USA explains, "North Korea again defied world opinion and UN
resolutions by conducting a third nuclear test. They threatened the United States directly, and they also are
threatening to go even farther in the future." Throwing the sanctions back in the United Nations Security
Council's face, North Korea not only refused to shut down nuclear development, but also ignored the warnings
of its close ally China not to proceed with a nuclear test. Dykstra notes, "North Korea [Kim Jong-un] thinks
that he is strong enough to go out on his own. I think maybe he's trying to consolidate power within his
ranks. Unfortunately, how far does this go?" There's no longer the illusion that this is a Disney-loving,
amusement park leader. "Kim Jong-un has been in power for just over a year. We thought perhaps he would be a
little more flexible," Dykstra explains. However, "He's ratcheting up the dialogue. North Korea is a threat."
North Korea Declares Pro-Nuke Policy - The UN Security Council unanimously approved a resolution this week condemning North Korea for its rocket
launch last month, widely viewed as a de facto ballistic missile test.
The rogue state's Foreign Ministry issued a statement after the resolution passed condemning the US,
reaffirming its military-first policy and declaring denuclearization off the table.
"The present situation clearly proves that the DPRK should counter the US hostile policy with strength, not
with words, and that the road of independence and Songun (military-first) chosen by the DPRK is entirely
just," the statement said. "There can be talks for peace and stability of the Korean Peninsula and the region
in the future, but no talks for the denuclearization of the peninsula."
North Korea Plans Rocket Launch - The United States is shifting warships into position to track and possibly defend against a planned North
Korean rocket launch while urging Pyongyang to cancel its second such attempt this year, the head of the U.S.
Pacific Command said on Thursday. Admiral Samuel Locklear, who commands U.S. forces in the Asia-Pacific
region, said warships were being moved to the best locations to track the rocket during its launch and
flight, which North Korea has set for sometime between December 10 and 22.
Russia To Build Two New Reactors in China - Russia will build two new reactors at China's Tianwan nuclear power plant under an inter-governmental
agreement signed on Thursday. The bilateral protocol on the construction of Tainwan's third and fourth
reactors was signed in the presence of Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev and his Chinese counterpart Wen
Jiabao. Construction work will begin in December this year.
China Buying Asian States' Loyalties - When U.S. President Barack Obama and more than a dozen leaders arrived in Cambodia for a regional
summit meeting this week, only one of them was feted with banners strung from the venue gates.
"Welcome Prime Minister Wen Jiabao!" one proclaimed. "Long live the People's Republic of China!"
read another. "Some states are easily swayed by money. If they see cash, they easily throw away
their principles," said one Asian diplomat at the East Asia Summit. "China has been throwing its
weight around and buying the loyalties of some Asian states." A prime example is Cambodia, whose
prime minister, Hun Sen, helped China to notch up a succession of diplomatic victories at the
Yuan Hits Record High Against The U.S. Dollar - China's yuan currency hit a record high against the US dollar on Tuesday, as a recovery in the domestic economy and US political pressure helped the unit strengthen, analysts
said. The yuan registered a record closing high of 6.2265 to the dollar, according to the China Foreign Exchange Trade System, marking the strongest level since China launched
its modern foreign exchange market in 1994. "China's economic recovery, albeit weak, may attract foreign capital to put investment in yuan-denominated assets, driving demand
for the currency," a Beijing-based foreign exchange analyst, who declined to be named, told AFP.
China Names New Military Leaders - China announced the promotions of five generals this week, shaping the top leadership of the rapidly modernizing military as it becomes a more dominant player in Asia and
challenges American dominance in the region. The jockeying for vacant positions has by all accounts been fierce, with much of it riding on personal allegiances to President Hu
Jintao or Vice President Xi Jinping. Mr. Xi is expected to succeed Mr. Hu as Communist Party leader at the 18th Party Congress, due to open on Nov. 8, and as president next
year. The full slate of commission members will be unveiled at the Party Congress.
The Next Generation of Chinese Communism - It was in 1921 that 13 young Chinese men hammered out the program for the newly formed Communist party of China. In a month, their descendants will gather in Beijing for the 18th congress and will hand over power to a new generation of leaders, with Xi Jinping at the helm. The Communist party is now the world's largest and most powerful political movement, with more than 80 million members; it controls a fifth of the globe's population and the second largest economy.
Though most of November's meeting will take place behind closed doors, the party no longer needs to cherish obscurity; these days the congress is a carefully mounted display of power and unity. Police will have silenced any hint of discord; activists and dissidents will be detained or put under surveillance.
China Proudly Launches First Aircraft Carrier - In a ceremony attended by the country's top leaders, China put its first
aircraft carrier - a discarded vessel bought from Ukraine in 1998 and
refurbished by China - into service on Tuesday, a move intended to signal its
growing military might as tensions escalate between Beijing and its neighbors
over islands in nearby seas. But despite the triumphant tone of the launching,
the vessel will be used only for training and testing for the foreseeable
The Starving of China's Economy - China's August trade data is set to reveal an awkward truth. For all the strength and flexibility policymakers in the world's second-biggest economy have, the sector of activity they can do least about is causing them the biggest problem.
August export growth is forecast by analysts in a Reuters poll to have been just 3 percent year on year, which would make it the weakest August since 2009 - near the depths of the global financial crisis and underlining President Hu Jintao's warning of the "grave challenges" posed by the world economy.
Such weak growth would be grim news in a country where exports generate 25 percent of gross domestic product, support an estimated 200 million jobs, and where analysts already expect the economy to have its weakest year of expansion since 1999.
The problem is that despite deep government pockets, record tax receipts, a budget in surplus in the first half of the year and monetary policy still on the tight side even with inflation near two-year lows, there is little policymakers in Beijing can do to stimulate demand beyond their borders.
China's biggest customers are the debt-ridden, recession-bound European Union and the still struggling United States.
India and China To Resume Bilateral Military Exercises - India and China will resume military exercises after a gap of four years. The
announcement was made during a visit to New Delhi by the Chinese defense minister -
the first such visit to India in eight years.
The decision to hold bilateral military exercises next year came during a meeting
on Tuesday in the Indian capital.
The two countries held military exercises in 2007 and 2008, but they were suspended
when India froze defense exchanges with China following Beijing's denial of a visa
to an Indian general.
Bryan Underwood Pleads Guilty to Giving Secrets To China - A former guard who worked at a consulate in China pleaded guilty to one count of attempting to communicate national defense information to a foreign government Thursday, in a plea deal that came several months after he was accused of trying to give secrets to China.
Bryan Underwood, an American who was contracted to help protect the consulate, appeared in U.S. District Court in Washington. U.S. District Court Judge Ellen Huvelle said Thursday that the agreement calls for a sentencing range of 188 to 235 months. Sentencing was set for November 19.
China's Up and Down Economic Future - China is grappling with an economic downturn, but there is more than the usual amount of disagreement about how fast it's slowing down. The battle is not between the usual bulls and bears. The most interesting split this time is between those who focus on a "macro," or top-down, picture of an economy, and those who zoom in on a "micro," or bottom-up, picture of companies.
The macro crowd says that China is slowing, but not collapsing. They point to broad-based economic indicators like industrial output, which grew 9.6 percent year-on-year in May. Granted, this is much slower than the 13-14 percent gains recorded last year. Those of a micro persuasion prefer to look at more detailed corporate reports, many of which show falling profits and sales. They've seized on the fact that makers of construction equipment, which grew enormously during the building boom of the last couple of years, are now seeing a 30-40 percent fall in sales volumes and a rise in unpaid bills.
China's Three Gorges Dam Connects To Grid - The final turbine of China's massive Three Gorges dam has been connected to the power grid, marking the completion of a controversial hydropower project that cost the country some $60 billion and displaced at least 1.3 million people. The installation of the project's 32nd 700-megawatt unit on Wednesday brought total capacity up to 22.5 gigawatts (GW), accounting for 11 percent of the country's total hydroelectric capacity. The project's 185-meter dam and 600km reservoir have forced the relocation of at least 1.3 million residents, and the government has acknowledged that earthquake and landslide risks have also increased in the region.
Chinese Woman Beaten, Forced to Abort At Seven Months - The picture of a woman in a hospital bed next to the baby she was forced to abort has caused outrage across China and the world. Women's Rights Without Frontiers has learned that a woman was forcibly aborted at seven months of pregnancy on June 3, 2012. According to a report by the China-based human rights organization 64Tianwang, the woman, Feng Jianmei, was beaten and dragged into a vehicle by a group of Family Planning Officials while her husband, Deng Jiyuan, was out working. The officials asked for RMB 40,000 ($6270) in fines from Feng Jianmei's family. When they did not receive the money, they forcibly aborted Feng at seven months, laying the body of her aborted baby next to her in the bed. Feng is under medical treatment in Ankang City, Zhenpin County, Zengjia Town, Yupin village.
Russia Moves Closer To China In Foreign Policy - Russia is forging closer ties with China as it rejects foreign intervention in Syria, opposes US domination of international affairs and rebalances its foreign policy in favor of Asia and former Soviet states. After returning to the Kremlin last month, Russian president Vladimir Putin declined invitations to meetings of the G8 and NATO in the US and made only brief stops in Paris and Berlin between more substantial visits to autocratic Belarus, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Beijing. Its advocates see it as a potential counterweight to NATO, with the distinction that it forswears interference in nations' internal matters, a crucial caveat for central Asian autocrats and for Russia as it fights rebels in the North Caucasus and a China tackling Tibetan and Uighur separatism.
North Korea's New Leader Talks To 20,000 Children - North Korea's young leader Kim Jong Un on Wednesday made his second speech at a major public event since taking power in December, addressing a children's rally aimed at winning a new generation's support. About 20,000 young people gathered at Pyongyang's Kim Il Sung Stadium for a speech that capped an unprecedented six-day children's festival. The celebrations took place two days after North Korea's military threatened to fire at South Korean media companies unless they apologized for criticisms of the festivities, including a report comparing the event to Hitler Youth rallies during Germany's Nazi era. June 6 marks the 66th anniversary of the founding of the Korean Children's Union, which students join at age 7 until they graduate at age 13 to the Kim Il Sung Socialist Youth League.
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