Monitor The Strategic Trends
China has climbed from an isolated backward country into one with a growing influence capable of becoming a superpower rivaling the United States.
In recent years, China has bought, borrowed, or stolen technology, which has catapulted its military capabilities into the modern high-tech arena. No one can match China for sheer numbers of people, and now it can challenge most of the world in technological achievements. The Clinton administration blindly sold sensitive technology to China and reportedly received campaign financing in return.
The human rights abuses have received less attention lately as various foreign leaders flock to pay state visits to the country and give little or no condemnation of China's human rights record. It seems that it is more important to placate than to demand reform. In the meanwhile, forced abortions and sterilization continue to be state policy, and political and religious persecution continues unchecked.
The "red dragon" no longer sleeps. It is already anticipating a war with the United States in the next decade or so and may one day prove to be a mighty adversary for anyone who gets in the way.
Just as China has emerged as a mass manufacturer, India is emerging as a giant in services. Technical and managerial strengths in both China and India are becoming more important that cheap assembly labor. And, their relative strengths are complementary, not competitive. For example, China has excelled in mass manufacturing, with multi-billion-dollar electronics and heavy industrial plants; India has specialized in software, design, services, and precision industry. Their efficiency in back-office processing alone is legendary and outsourcing such work is expected to quadruple by 2010 to over $56 billion per year!
These two emerging giants will transform the entire global economy. China and India account for one-third of the worlds population. For the past two decades, China has been growing at 9.5% per year, and India at 6% per year.Both are projected to continue at an annual rate of 7-8% for at least the next ten years. By mid-century, China should overtake the U.S. as #1. Together, China and India could account for almost half of the total global output.
Indias younger workforce will give it a chance to catch up to China. Due to its one-child policy, Chinas working age population will peak at 1 billion in 2015 and then shrink steadily. India has nearly 500 million people (twice the population of the U.S.) under the age of 19 and higher fertility rates. By mid-century, India is expected to have 1.6 billion people, 220 million more workers than China.
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Far-East Update The Kings of the East by Dr. Steve Elwart
The Kings of South Asia by Steve Elwart
Strategic Update: 2010 and Beyond - China by Mary Miller, Director of Research
China Update, Part 3: Communism in China by Mary Miller, Koinonia Institute
China Update, Part 2: Economics in China by Mary Miller, Koinonia Institute
China Update, Part 1: Religion in China by Chuck Missler
Kings of the East, Part 2 The Rise of India by Chuck Missler
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ADDITIONAL DOCUMENTS AND LINKS
Note: These links are provided for your further research and education. Koinonia House does not necessarily agree with the information on these sites or support the specific organizations.
Chinese Hackers Reportedly Crashed Federal Election Commission Website - Chinese hackers crashed the Federal Election Commission’s website Oct. 1, the first day of the partial government shutdown, in “what may be the worst act of sabotage in [the FEC’s] 38-year history,” a non-partisan investigative journalism group reported. David Levinthal, senior reporter at the Center for Public Integrity, told Fox News the hackers’ motivation was not yet clear, but taking down a website of the U.S. federal government is a “big deal to them.”
Inside China: Nuclear Submarines Capable of Widespread Attack on U.S. - Chinese state-run media revealed for the first time this week that Beijing’s nuclear submarines can attack American cities as a means to counterbalance U.S. nuclear deterrence in the Pacific.
China Snooping Around Pentagon Computers - China is using espionage to acquire technology to fuel its military modernization, the Pentagon said on Monday, for the first time accusing the Chinese of trying to break into U.S. defense computer networks and prompting a firm denial from Beijing. In its 83-page annual report to Congress on Chinese military developments, the Pentagon also cited progress in Beijing’s effort to develop advanced-technology stealth aircraft and build an aircraft carrier fleet to project power further offshore.
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