Monitor The Strategic Trends
Introduction:
China has climbed from an isolated backward country into one with a growing influence capable of becoming a superpower rivaling the United States.
In recent years, China has bought, borrowed, or stolen technology, which has catapulted its military capabilities into the modern high-tech arena. No one can match China for sheer numbers of people, and now it can challenge most of the world in technological achievements. The Clinton administration blindly sold sensitive technology to China and reportedly received campaign financing in return.
The human rights abuses have received less attention lately as various foreign leaders flock to pay state visits to the country and give little or no condemnation of China's human rights record. It seems that it is more important to placate than to demand reform. In the meanwhile, forced abortions and sterilization continue to be state policy, and political and religious persecution continues unchecked.
The "red dragon" no longer sleeps. It is already anticipating a war with the United States in the next decade or so and may one day prove to be a mighty adversary for anyone who gets in the way.
Just as China has emerged as a mass manufacturer, India is emerging as a giant in services. Technical and managerial strengths in both China and India are becoming more important that cheap assembly labor. And, their relative strengths are complementary, not competitive. For example, China has excelled in mass manufacturing, with multi-billion-dollar electronics and heavy industrial plants; India has specialized in software, design, services, and precision industry. Their efficiency in back-office processing alone is legendary and outsourcing such work is expected to quadruple by 2010 to over $56 billion per year!
These two emerging giants will transform the entire global economy. China and India account for one-third of the world’s population. For the past two decades, China has been growing at 9.5% per year, and India at 6% per year. Both are projected to continue at an annual rate of 7-8% for at least the next ten years. By mid-century, China should overtake the U.S. as #1. Together, China and India could account for almost half of the total global output.
India’s younger workforce will give it a chance to catch up to China. Due to its one-child policy, China’s working age population will peak at 1 billion in 2015 and then shrink steadily. India has nearly 500 million people (twice the population of the U.S.) under the age of 19 and higher fertility rates. By mid-century, India is expected to have 1.6 billion people, 220 million more workers than China.
[RETURN TO THE MOST RECENT LINKS]
China and US Tensions Tighten Over Tibet, Ships March 10, 2009
Leaders of EU and China Meet January 27, 2009
China Leads in Asian Space Race September 09, 2008
China Update, Part 3: Communism in China by Mary Miller, Koinonia Institute
China Update, Part 2: Economics in China by Mary Miller, Koinonia Institute
China Update, Part 1: Religion in China by Chuck Missler
Kings of the East, Part 2 The Rise of India by Chuck Missler
The Centroid Continues Westward: The Kings of the East by Chuck Missler
The Rise of Asia: An Overlooked "King of the East"? by Chuck Missler
Energy Wars: The Coming Crunch by Chuck Missler
What's Really Going On? U.S. - China Relations by Carol Loeffler
From Our Private Modem: Feeding the Dragon? by Chuck Missler
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News Sources
NEW!
US Takes N Korea's Violent Rhetoric Lightly - US officials are closely monitoring the situation in North Korea, but said Thursday there are "no signs of an imminent long-range launch" of a long-range missile headed toward Hawaii. North Korea has vowed to enlarge its nuclear arsenal and threatened the US with "annihilation." But senior US officials are putting the ramped up rhetoric as part of a "continuing North Korea bluster" designed to coincide with the 59th anniversary of the outbreak of the Korean War.
US Journalists In North Korean Prisons - While starvation, vicious beatings, torture, and public executions are the normal fare in North Korean work camps, the American journalists who were recently given 12-year sentences will most likely not be treated as badly as normal prisoners. North Korea cannot afford to let American journalists describe the true conditions of its prison camps, and with world eyes on the situation, the two journalists cannot just be buried. Still, even with better treatment, Laura Ling and Euna are in for no picnic.
War On The Korean Peninsula? - North Korea appears to be preparing to test-launch its longest range ballistic missile, just days after Pyongyang warned that the Korean peninsula was on the brink of war. Analysts say the possibility that North Korea would start an all-out war with the South is low because Pyongyang knows its underfunded military is no match for the U.S.-backed modern military of its Southern neighbour. But the following scenarios could unfold...
India Counts Down to First Lunar Mission - India began the countdown Monday to the launch of its first unmanned mission to the moon that will mark a giant catch-up step with Japan and China in the fast-developing Asian space race.
China Says 82 People Detained in Olympic Plots - China has detained 82 suspected terrorists in the first half of the year on allegations that they were plotting attacks against next month's Olympics. Police nabbed the suspects in raids on five separate terrorist rings in the traditionally Muslim Xinjiang region of China's far west.
More Power Cuts Loom in China - A worsening coal shortage means that China faces the prospect this summer of the most extensive power cuts it has seen in four years.
China Prepares Olympic Bible Giveaway - China has gone one step further to dispel concerns that Olympic athletes would be barred from bringing Bibles with them to China this summer. It is now preparing to give away tens of thousands of Christian texts in Beijing and other Olympic co-host cities. Athletes and visitors alike will be able to obtain free copies of the Bible, New Testament and booklets with the four Gospels during the Games next month.
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