Monitor The Strategic Trends

The threat of germ warfare has brought to the forefront long-forgotten diseases like plague, anthrax, and smallpox. Recent television news programs have highlighted secret projects in the former Soviet Union to develop antibiotic-resistant strains of genetically engineered viruses and bacteria. The U.S. launched a military attack against a drug manufacturing plant in the Sudan, accusing it of acting as a cover for the production of biological weapons. The potential for a biological attack against the United States was actually increased with this action, rather than decreased because those involved in terrorism see it as a matter of honor to avenge their losses.

AIDS continues to decimate huge segments of the population in Africa, spreading from central into southern Africa. Some doctors in the region claim that AIDS will kill from 20 to 30 percent of the populations, leaving nearly 8.2 million orphaned children in the wake. Thailand also reports that the AIDS epidemic is far worse there than initially reported, nearly three times the original estimate.

A new resilient form of tuberculosis has struck in Russia, spreading especially rapidly through the unsanitary prison systems. It has proven a serious health threat to many Russians, because of the closed environments during winter months which cause the disease to spread. In addition, many doctors in Russia favor the old method of rest in a sanitarium, rather than using western drug treatments. It remains to be seen which method will prove more successful.

South Africa has also suffered an epidemic outbreak of TB. Millions of poor, mainly black South Africans are infected with TB. The epidemic is worse in the rural areas where sanitation is lacking. It is feared that although the strain of TB in South Africa does respond to drug treatment, many patients stop taking their medication when they begin to feel better and risk incubating a new resistant disease.

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